Saturday, December 5, 2009

Who Can Beat Jmann Review? NFL Game Blog #4

In NFL Game Blog #3, I had indicated that division games are always difficult matchups even when one team is good and one team is mediocre or worse.  That theory was proven when the heavily favored Cowboys barely eked out a 7-6 victory over the Zornskins at home.  It might also be that Dallas is mediocre itself.  I also picked against that theory by taking the Patriots at home over the lowly Jets even though they were giving 10.5 points.  That game was such a blow out that I left the stadium at halftime.  And I'm sticking to that story.

This week will really test our handicapping ability as several games fall into the handicapping netherworld of pick 'ems and spreads between 4 and 6 points.  These are the toughest games; particularly the games with 5 or 5.5 point spreads.  I mean who wins by that many points?  To assist in our endeavor, I have also recruited my three year daughter (DLG) to help the three of us.  Believe me, I tried to ignore the "Daddy, can I help?" whines, to no avail.

9am.  We are all excited to begin, particularly when I told C and G that they don't have to help me rake the leaves if they help me pick the games.  Home teams are in capital letters.

FALCONS (+5.5)

C:  Eagles.  "I like the Eagles because they are faster than Falcons."
G:  Eagles. "Because there are two birds on the team!"  Perhaps he thinks that they are playing together?
DLG:  Falcons.  "Because..."  "Because why?"  I ask her.  "Because why." she answers with a Coach K smirk on her face.  Let's just go with the Falcons; I don't have a chance.
JMR:  I like the Falcons in this game.  Matt Ryan hasn't been Tom Brady this year, so the difference in QBs is negligible.  I think between Mcihael Turner and their other skill players, Chris Redman will be just fine.  If Turner doesn't play either though, forget this pick.


C:  Dolphins.  "Because Dolphins, when they come up for air and then go back down into the water, they hit people in the head with their tails."  I like the physiological approach, if not the reasoning for why they would win.
G:  Patriots.  "They are the best team in the whole entire world.  At least you know he didn't stay up late with his uncle to watch the Saints game.
DLG:  Patriots.  "Because..." "Because why?" I ask her. "Because why. Hahahahahah!!!" she answers. "Thank you sweetie for your help.  Can you find Mommy for me?"  I tell her, knowing that Mommy is hiding in the bedroom closet trying to stay away from us.
JMR:  Patriots.  I think the Saints game demonstrated that the Saints are just a well-coached, talented team, and not that the Patriots are falling apart.  Also, Chad Henne does not strike fear into anyone's heart like Drew Brees does.


C:  Lions.  "Lions can kill tigers and are more restless [N.B. I'm told restless means aggressive to him].
G:  Bengals.  "Tigers are faster than Lions." He looked at me quizzically when I asked him if he liked the Bengals.  Then I explained a Bengal is a type of Tiger, and the resulting excitement was off the charts.
JMR:  Lions.  I picked the Lions to win this game in my preseason review of the Lions team.  I'm not backing off now.  In fact, I like the Lions winning outright.

BROWNS (+13.5)

C:  Browns.  "I like eating brownies.  Do we have any brownies, Dad?"  No you can't have a brownie at 9am in the morning.  Unless you get Dad a diet coke too while you're in there.
G:  Chargers.  "Because Drake and Josh live in San Diego."  He's used that one before, but he's also winning at a 75% clip, so I'll go with the kid on this one. 
JMR:  Chargers.  They are peaking at the right time (for the Patriots and the Colts, that is, well before the playoffs begin).  I see this game finishing with a Chargers 31-6 win.

I also like the BEARS (-9) (has there been a worse 9 point favorite in the history of the NFL?  Oh yeah, the Seahawks last week), Raiders (+14.5), Titans (+7), CHIEFS (+5), Saints (-9.5), PANTHERS (-5.5), Jaguars (Pick 'em), GIANTS (+2.5), 49ers (Pick 'em), Vikings (-3) and PACKERS (-3).  A three team tease with the Saints, Patriots and Giants is a sure winner. 

Last Week 8-6
Season 26-18

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