Switch J.D. Drew with Jayson Werth to end his Misery

"Dad, how old is J.D. Drew?" my nine year old asked me as we were riding in the car listening to the Red Sox game.  J.D. Drew had just struck out looking, and even though we could only hear it, I knew exactly how it looked.  A close pitch that Drew always watches go by, Drew walking toward first half-heartedly and then being rung up by the umpire as he slightly slumps his shoulders and walks back toward the dugout.

Emotion-filled J.D. Drew                      courtesy of prorumors

"He looks 79 years old, he's so old!" C goes on to proclaim after I guessed that Drew was 35 years old,  "He's not very good and he always strikes out.  Why doesn't he swing?"  When you lose a nine year old in the popularity department, that's really saying something.

Almost halfway through the season and Drew's batting average is down 45 points from his career average and his OPS is over 200 points lower.  Even the on base machine (Remember when Theo Epstein defended the Drew signing by showing the Drew had the highest OPS in the American League in the last half of the season a couple of seasons ago?) has dropped to .333.  And this guy is only 35 years old, in a contract year!  Tim Wakefield, he is not.

Couple Drew's awful start with the Red Sox's need for another right-handed bat, and the Red Sox will be in the market for a right handed rightfielder with some pop in his bat.  Interestingly enough, there is a righthanded rightfielder with some pop that will likely be available at the end of next month.  I originally compared this player to Carl Crawford over the summer when the rumors were flying around baseball that the Red Sox were in the free agent market for an outfielder.  Although he signed with another team, he is merely a placeholder for one of the most highly prized rookie prospects in MLB.  Ready?

Jayson Werth.

Werth does have 10 home runs and 10 steals so he would provide the batting that the Red Sox need from Rightfield.  But he's mired in a slump batting just .236 with an OPS of .749 so it's not as if he is untouchable.  Werth's team, the  Washington Nationals are an interesting team.  It's manager just up and quit because the team wouldn't discuss a contract extension midseason.  It's most recognizable player and best pitcher is sidelined for the foreseeable future after Tommy John surgery last year.  But...BUT, the Nationals are also the beneficiary of one of the best prospects in minor league baseball.  And he just so happens to play the same position (rightfield) as Werth...Bryce Harper.

Harper, granted, is in Low A baseball playing for Hagerstown and is battling a minor thumb injury.  But he's tearing the league up right now with a .326 batting average and an OPS of .1000.  And he's carrying himself like a major leaguer even though he's merely 18 years old.  Most teams would let a player like Harper develop in the minor leagues, but the Nationals have a penchant for rushing their star young players through the system (see Stephen Strasburg).  Harper surely will be rushed through just as quickly.  And Werth is standing in his way.  Believe me, Werth is available.

But back to Drew and the Red Sox.  The Red Sox won't mind taking on Werth's remaining $126 million salary and Werth's bat will fit nicely into that 6 hole currently occupied by J.D. Drew.  Drew's final season with the Red Sox will not be his finest, but he will be a good bat to come off the bench for when a pinch hitter is needed for one of the catchers or for Marco Scutaro.  Drew won't complain about his role either because he's emotionless out there on the field.  Even if he were pissed off, we would never know.

Ultimately, the Red Sox have a powerful lineup, but they are struggling against lefthanded pitchers.  A recent game pitched by Pirates pitcher Paul Maholm demonstrates the Red Sox's lack of righthanded power.  It's the team's achilles' heal, especially as they face tough lefthanders in the AL East like Sabathia, Price and Romero.  This midseason trade would be the solution to that problem.

"Dad, why don't the Red Sox play Josh Reddick instead of Drew?"  Yeah, I say put Drew out of his misery and bring in a righthanded rightfielder.

Can You Tell the Difference between Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth?

The news of the day, which will be replaced by even more startling hot stove news tomorrow, was the Red Sox' secret meeting with Carl Crawford and his agent in Houston earlier today.  The usual media outlets are fighting it out over whether the Red Sox should pick up Carl Crawford or should they sign the Phillies' Jayson Werth for the seemingly vacant Outfielder's job in 2011.  Mike Cameron and his kidney stones are probably doubling over in pain at the thought that 25 games into his Red Sox career there is already a clamor to replace him.  But nevermind, who would you rather have Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford?

Crawford is a speedy leftfielder who has absolutely killed the Red Sox over the last 7 years, ever since his 2003 rookie campaign in Tampa Bay.  He would be good complement to Jacoby Ellsbury, who would tickled pink to be moving back to Centerfield despite his mysterious broken ribs.  The concern, of course is that Crawford already joins a lineup that showcases numerous 15 - 20 home runs and 75-90 RBIs guys, including Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and JD Drew.  The Red Sox do not necessarily need another 2 or 6 hitter, they need a clean up hitter who could hit 35 home runs.

Werth seems to make a little more sense when you simply look at his place in the lineup.  He would make a good fit in the 4 or 5 hole sandwiched between Ortiz, Youkilis and whomever the Red Sox get to replace Beltre at Third/First Base.  He has slightly more power than Crawford 27 vs 19 in 2010.  But his numbers suffered considerably from his breakout 2009 season.  Considering he is 32 years old, is this a signal that he is slowing down in this post steroids era?  Further, he plays RIGHTFIELD.  Notwithstanding Werth's agent Scott Boras proclaiming Werth as the next coming of Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays, Werth is still a Rightfielder.  Where is J.D. Drew going to play (I can't believe I'm asking that)?

As I listen to the radio arguments, I couldn't decide who I would want either.  So I asked the boys who they would take.  I merely extracted Crawford's statistics and Werth's statistics and had them choose without knowing what players they were choosing from.

Player 1:
2010:  184 hits, 30 doubles, 13 triples, 19 home runs, 90 RBIs, 47 stolen bases
Career:  1480 hits, 215 doubles, 105 triples, 104 home runs, 592 RBIs, 409 stolen bases

Player 2:
2010:  164 hits, 46 doubles, 2 triples, 27 home runs, 85 RBIs, 13 stolen bases
Career:  684 hits, 138 doubles, 15 triples, 120 home runs, 406 RBIs 77 stolen bases

After careful inspection, I was able to elicit the following brief responses from the boys (who were annoyed that I wouldn't tell them who the players were in the first place)

G: "What does career mean?  Whatever, I like Player 1 because he has 184...ummm...what do you call them?  Oh right, hits.  And he had 215 double in his career.  I only had five in my career."  (and those were grounders between the three second basemen and the four shortstops in his little league game)

C:  After pushing his brother out of the way.  "I like Player 1.  He would lead the Red Sox to the World Series.  He has a lot of home runs, hits and stolen bases, especially 1480 hits in his career.  And Dad I know who you're talking about.  He's on the Marlins isn't he?"  He was proud of himself, although he got the team wrong.

As you can see both of the boys, simply looking at the statistics, both like Crawford.  As I'm writing down the statistics, I have to admit that the numbers are tough to argue with.  Crawford has been consistent for years compared to Werth and the comparison of their career stats bears that out.  Despite Werth being a character (see Werth's beard) and the Red Sox could use some interesting character in the clubhouse to loosen things up, Werth could easily turn into a seven year contract that the Red Sox regret two years in.  Meanwhile, Crawford would likely flourish in Anaheim/Los Angeles or in New York.

And with Crawford in the fold, that's one less player to steal 5 bases a game against the Red Sox.

The verdict is in.  There is a big difference between Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth.  Their slugging and other power statistics are not so much different that Crawford would be seen as a liability in the Red Sox lineup.  But Crawford fits the Red Sox need in Left Field and adds dimensions of speed and defense that that management also appreciates.  I'm in the Crawford camp.