John Lackey's Comeback is Almost Complete

You read it here first.  John Lackey will lead the Boston Red Sox to the 2013 American League Playoffs.  That's right.  John Lackey.  He of the 5.40 ERA in Spring Training this year.  He of the bum right arm who was shelved for 2012.  He of the 26-23 record for the Red Sox since joining as a highly touted free agent signing after the 2009 season.  That John Lackey. 

The Red Sox have a slew of new players this year - Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes, one of the Drew brothers.  In fact, only 5 players remain from that moribund 2009 team that was swept by Lackey's Angels in the ALDS.  But the most important piece of the puzzle is and will continue to be the mysterious John Lackey.  Pegged to be either the 4th or 5th Starter for the Red Sox in 2013, Lackey has the ability, if he regains the form from his stellar 2007 season, to be the most valuable Pitcher in the Red Sox organization.

And that's where my review starts...John Lackey winning 15 games as a Number 4 starter.  I figure that the Red Sox will need to win 92 games to make the playoffs in 2013.  And to achieve that, Lackey is going to have to win 15 of those games.  For every game fewer that Lackey wins this year, the Red Sox will win 3 games fewer.  Now I get it.  It has to be within reason and not a direct correlation.  So if Lackey wins just 10 games or fewer, the Red Sox will win 77 games and finish below .500 for the second consecutive year.

How about that spectacle while you're sitting in those $100 box seats - a second straight losing season?

Now if Lackey wins 15 games or more?  The Red Sox are going to the Playoffs.  It might be that questionable one game playoff that began in 2012, or it might be as the Number 1 seed after winning the AL East.  Rest assured, the Red Sox will go to the playoffs if Lackey wins 15 games or more.

How do I know? 

Pitching.  Lester, Buchholz and Dempster are all projected to win 15 games this year.  Based on his Spring Training performance, Jon Lester is looking at the prospect of winning 20 games.  No team has ever had 4 15-game winners and failed to make the playoffs.  OK, I'm lying about that statistic, but you get my point.  The relievers, led by Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey, might be one of the strongest groups in the league.

Stars Realign.  Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia are coming off of subpar seasons.  Pedroia is poised to pick up where he left off in 2011.  Ellsbury might be one of those Brady Anderson types after his break out 2011 season (if you know what I mean), but he is in a contract year, and he seems like the kind of guy who will put up monster numbers in the hopes of garnering a massive multiyear contract in 2014.

Character Guys.  The Red Sox, after the double debacle of "Chicken and Beer" and "Bobby Valentine," have figured out that bringing in solid chemistry team-first guys is good for the club.  In fact, the Red Sox would be smart to duplicate the success of the 1996-2000 Yankees, who built a team of blue collar workers around a small core of good to great players.  Scott Brosius was a decent player.  Not great, but he fit in great for that Yankees' club.  Jonny Gomes and Mike Napoli both fit that profile.

AL Least.  Believe it or not, the AL East is weak this year.  The Yankees are old and hurting, using two Red Sox cast offs as their corner infielders for the foreseeable future, a 43 year old closer and an ace that has never turned down seconds or thirds at the Dinner Table.  The Blue Jays are relying on one hit wonder RA Dickey and oft-injured Jose Reyes to lead them to the playoffs.  The Rays have no hitting to match their solid rotation.  The Orioles will fail to win more than 75 games.  On paper, the AL East looks strong, but in actuality, is dancing on the head of a pin.  I can see the Red Sox squeezing out a Division title, honestly.

But the key remains Lackey.  If the Red Sox don't have a reliable 4th starter, they are going to be pounded in every 3 and 4 game series at least once.  That starts to wear down a team during a long season.  John Lackey will either catapult the Red Sox to the top of the league (if he's healthy and serviceable) or will lead to long lines at the Beer parlors that Lackey knows so well on Yawkey Way and Brookline Avenue (if he duplicates his 2011 campaign).

Prediction.  Lackey wins those 15 games.  The Red Sox win 93 games and make the Playoffs as one of the the AL Wild Card.  Play Ball!

Are the Red Sox Really a Last Place Team?

The 2013 Red Sox season is going to be interesting.  I just hope it is in a good way.

We know about the Yankees.  Tampa Bay has the strongest starting rotation in baseball.  The Orioles somehow snuck into the playoffs last year, and while I don't know how they did it, they were there.  And the Blue Jays, while losing their manager, gained Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson.  They are going to be a force to be reckoned with this year.

And this leaves the lowly Red Sox.  Just 5 years removed from their appearance in the ALCS, the Red Sox have now become the laughing stock of the American League. They blew the largest lead in September history while losing out on the playoffs during the ill-fated fried chicken cabal of 2011.  Their manager was let go in disgrace amid drug rumors.  Their former manager has written a tell all book that exploits the Red Sox crusty side.  They have employees and former employees embroiled in drug issues.  Their World Series hero from 2004 is bankrupt and trying to sell that bloody sock (both figuratively and literally).  To make matters worse, the team absolutely stunk up the league last year and woebegone joke of a manager Bobby Valentine "led" the team to a 69-93 finish, making all of us remember fondly the days of John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

But 2013 is a new year.  New manager John Farrell has vowed to make things different.  And with additions of "clubhouse" guys like Johny Gomes, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino, some pundits are now trying to talk themselves into John Lackey regaining his 2002-2007 self, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester coming back from terrible seasons and David Ortiz continuing to defy his age.  Add to that the return of the Drew family to Fenway, and the Red Sox have assembled a mish-mash of role players and young players mixed in with some cagey veterans.

Spring is right around the corner.  And the Red Sox are now down in Florida at Spring Training.  It's different this year though.  There isn't the anticipation and craziness following the Red Sox all around.  With the Celtics and the Bruins both playing decent ball (puck), the Red Sox now take a back seat to those sports until the playoffs are over.  Shane Victorino and Ryan Dempster will have to wait.

And while Tom Werner and the TV guys are probably fretting over the fact that there is no buzz surrounding this team - and in fact many are predicting a last place finish again - the players and manager are probably excited to be the cast-asides expected to finish 5th in the Division.  Lower expectations mean that they will have nowhere to go but up and maybe they can even sneak up on some teams.  Really, how good are the Orioles anyway?

In fact, this team reminds me of a certain team from the mid 90's.  This team I'm talking about didn't really do anything in the 5 years leading up to their super season.  They were led by some stars, some rookies and some role players.  They had very good pitching buoyed by some outstanding seasons from veterans as well as strong performances from young pitchers.  This team was led by a manager who really didn't have much success but seemed like a good fit for this team.  The team was full of good clubhouse guys who kept things loose in the clubhouse.  Yes, I'm talking about the 1996 New York Yankees.  The 2013 Boston Red Sox, if the veteran pitching comes through and the young players like Will Middlebrooks, Xander Boegaerts and Jose Iglesias show a little life and David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia continue their excellence.  Maybe the Red Sox have a chance.  I'm talking myself into this season already.

This will be the last time I compare the Red Sox to anything the team to the South does.  But it is fitting.

Join us over the next couple of weeks as we discuss the most important player for the 2013 Red Sox season.  It would surprise you to read what I think.